Alabamians Take Notice: Tropical Formation Chance Rises to 90%

AL97 is being monitored for future development with a “Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent” and a “Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent,” said the National Hurricane Center.

Here is What We Do Know

Environmental conditions are conducive to the further development of this system. A tropical depression or storm is expected to form in the next day or two as it moves northward through the northwestern Caribbean Sea and into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, where further development is anticipated.

Also, all of this information could be adjusted as this tropical system develops. The track, speed, and intensity all affect forecasting for our West Alabama area.

Could this System Become a Hurricane?

“The disturbance in the western Caribbean is expected to become Hurricane Helene by Wednesday,” said James Spann, ABC 33/40, and Townsquare Media Tuscaloosa Chief Meteorologist.

“It remains important to point out that the system hasn't formed yet, and there is no well-defined low-level center. Once that happens, and we get dropsonde data from hurricane hunters, model data can be trusted more.”

Weather Model Information

Spann said, “Models are actually tightly clustered, with landfall probabilities highest around Apalachicola/Cape San Blas/Indian Pass on Thursday.”

It is good to remember that the system has not formed, and landfall possibilities stretch along the Gulf Coast.

Early Thoughts on Impacts to Alabama

“Once inland, Helene will be pulled northwest, rotating around an upper low over Arkansas. This is known as the " Fujiwhara Effect, "which is pretty unusual at this latitude,” said Spann. The tropical system and the upper low will rotate around each other.

The National Weather Service in Birmingham said, “The best chance of seeing gusty winds from a potential tropical system will be across eastern and southeastern counties in Central Alabama.”

Forecast trends suggest that flooding could become Central Alabama's most significant concern, heavily influenced by the projected path of the incoming tropical system. Current model probabilities indicate over 2 inches of rainfall across Central Alabama.

College Football Saturday

“The weekend across Alabama will be much drier, and we expect only scattered showers Saturday for the college football games,” said Spann.

We will closely monitor future developments and what that could mean for the Alabama coastline and inland. - Mary K. Weather Forecaster.